Thailand’s GDP in Q2 2020 has contracted by 12.2%, our biggest plunge in 22 years in the mid of a global pandemic according to the National Economic and Social Development Council. The pandemic directly hit our tourism and export sectors, which makes up a significant portion of our Gross Domestic Product.
So the GDP contraction is spurred on by the pandemic, but our domestic economy has been seeing a slowdown for quite some time, due to the lack of tailwind and export slowdown.
The council cut its full-year forecast to a 7.3%-7.8% contraction. This is moderately better than the Central Bank’s 8.1% estimate.
Thailand will see a long road to recovery, as our economic fundamentals are weakening.
As long as we remain tourism dependent, the near term outlook is challenging, and long-term prospects will rely on a series of government stimulation, infrastructure overhaul and generally a gradual recovery as we deal with many challenges ahead.